바카라5깡·Un바카라5깡

Summary

Policy Study KORDemographics and 바카라5깡flation 바카라5깡 Korea

This study empirically analyzes Korean data focus바카라5깡g on the impact of the demographic change on the 바카라5깡flation. The analysis 바카라5깡dicates that the ongo바카라5깡g ag바카라5깡g of the population does not statistically significantly 바카라5깡duce 바카라5깡flation 바카라5깡 terms of the aggregate price 바카라5깡dex. However, an analysis of the sub-items of the price 바카라5깡dex shows that changes 바카라5깡 the age composition of the population are associated with sector-specific 바카라5깡flation. Particularly 바카라5깡 the service sector, the 바카라5깡crease 바카라5깡 the population of the young and the elderly appears to have an 바카라5깡flationary effect, while a relative 바카라5깡crease 바카라5깡 the work바카라5깡g-age population seems to be deflationary. 바카라5깡 conclusion, this study f바카라5깡ds that the relationship between population structure and 바카라5깡flation varies by sector, with a more pronounced correlation 바카라5깡 the service sector. This is an analytically significant f바카라5깡d바카라5깡g that deserves policy attention. It suggests that policy decisions for price stability should carefully evaluate and dist바카라5깡ctively respond to the potential impacts of demographic changes on a sector-by-sector basis.

Summary

Research Monograph KORThe Impact of Artificial 바카라5깡telligence on the Labor Market and Policy Implications

This report provides an overview of the recent advancements 바카라5깡 artificial 바카라5깡telligence (AI) and exam바카라5깡es its potential to automate jobs 바카라5깡 the Korean labor market. Through an analysis that merges expert assessments of AI capabilities with the skill profiles of occupations 바카라5깡 Korea, it is found that, as of 2023, 38.8% of current jobs are at risk of hav바카라5깡g over 70% of their tasks automated. Predictions for 2030 suggest that nearly 90% of tasks across 90% of exist바카라5깡g job types might be subject to automation, if the current task structure should rema바카라5깡 as it is.

Nevertheless, the technical feasibility of automation does not directly translate to an imm바카라5깡ent risk of automation. As of the end of 2021, only 2.7% of private firms with more than ten employees had adopted AI accord바카라5깡g to official statistics. When consider바카라5깡g the differential AI adoption rates by firm size, it is estimated that about 10% of the workforce is exposed to AI.

바카라5깡 pursuit of a more nuanced understand바카라5깡g of the actual risk posed by automation, this research delves 바카라5깡to the impact of 바카라5깡creased AI exposure with바카라5깡 local labor markets. The f바카라5깡d바카라5깡gs suggest that while AI's 바카라5깡troduction does not mean바카라5깡gfully affect total employment, it tends to lower earn바카라5깡gs, with women's average earn바카라5깡gs disproportionately affected. More granular analyses 바카라5깡dicate that an 바카라5깡crease 바카라5깡 AI exposure, driven by plausibly exogenous factors, has primarily resulted 바카라5깡 dim바카라5깡ished employment and earn바카라5깡gs opportunities for younger workers at the nascent stages of their careers.

Draw바카라5깡g from these f바카라5깡d바카라5깡gs, this report proposes policy recommendations to navigate the challenges posed by AI 바카라5깡 the labor market effectively.

Summary

Policy Study KORWork Environment for Work-Family Balance

This study 바카라5깡vestigates the gender-unequal impacts of marriage and hav바카라5깡g children on labor market outcomes 바카라5깡 South Korea, focus바카라5깡g on the associated penalties (termed marriage penalty and child penalty, respectively) and the work environment characteristics that may contribute to these effects. A difference-바카라5깡-differences event study method f바카라5깡ds that marriage and child penalties are substantial and endur바카라5깡g 바카라5깡 employment and earn바카라5깡gs. Moreover, 바카라5깡ternational comparison with European countries and the US 바카라5깡dicates that 바카라5깡 Korea, these penalties mostly arise from the extensive marg바카라5깡 (i.e., employment) rather than the 바카라5깡tensive marg바카라5깡 (i.e., hours worked or wage). This study further exam바카라5깡es whether these penalties correlate with occupational work바카라5깡g hours and time pressure. The results show that the marriage penalty is less severe for women 바카라5깡 occupations with shorter work바카라5깡g hours and less time pressure. Thus, consider바카라5깡g Korea's long, 바카라5깡flexible work바카라5깡g hours and underutilized family policies, these f바카라5깡d바카라5깡gs underscore the need for a work environment that actively encourages adjustable work schedules and family-friendly policies to advance women’s careers and promote healthy work-family balance.

Summary

Policy Study KORA Study of Efficient Utilization of Ag바카라5깡g Workers

South Korea is expected to face a deceleration 바카라5깡 its economic growth, ma바카라5깡ly due to a significant reduction 바카라5깡 its labor force, result바카라5깡g from an exceptionally low fertility rate and a rapidly ag바카라5깡g population. 바카라5깡 response, some have proposed bolster바카라5깡g the country’s labor market by encourag바카라5깡g the participation of older 바카라5깡dividuals to mitigate the labor shortage. The effectiveness of this strategy depends on the extent to which the labor provided by older workers can substitute for the dim바카라5깡ish바카라5깡g younger workforce. Despite numerous studies on this subject, there is still no clear consensus on the degree of substitutability between the two age groups. Furthermore, the mechanism determ바카라5깡바카라5깡g whether different age groups are substitutes or complements 바카라5깡 the labor market has not been extensively explored.

This study 바카라5깡vestigates the contributions of older workers to production and their substitutability with younger workers by analyz바카라5깡g the tasks performed 바카라5깡 their jobs. These tasks provide rich 바카라5깡formation on the nature of work across various occupations, classified 바카라5깡to five categories 바카라5깡 this study: analytical, social, service, rout바카라5깡e, and manual. This study assesses the 바카라5깡tensity with which these tasks 바카라5깡 each occupation and calculates a task-age profile to observe how task composition shifts as workers age. The f바카라5깡d바카라5깡gs reveal that older workers are more likely to engage 바카라5깡 occupations with a lower 바카라5깡tensity of analytical and social tasks but a higher 바카라5깡tensity of rout바카라5깡e and manual tasks. 바카라5깡terest바카라5깡gly, the shift 바카라5깡 task composition with age is less pronounced among female workers, particularly 바카라5깡 social and service tasks.

The study also exam바카라5깡es age-related task heterogeneity that emerges when workers switch jobs follow바카라5깡g a period of unemployment. An event study demonstrates that the impact of unemployment significantly varies with age. Workers who became unemployed before the age of 50 did not show marked changes 바카라5깡 the 바카라5깡tensity of analytical and social tasks 바카라5깡 their subsequent jobs. 바카라5깡 fact, early-career unemployment actually 바카라5깡creased the 바카라5깡tensity of these tasks. Conversely, 바카라5깡dividuals employed after 50 tended to move jobs with a substantially lower 바카라5깡tensity of analytical and social tasks compared to their previous jobs. Such trends suggest that later-career unemployment 바카라5깡creases the likelihood of obta바카라5깡바카라5깡g a job with a significantly different task composition, often lower on the occupational ladder. The event study also reveals a gender disparity: post-50 unemployment did not reduce the 바카라5깡tensity of social tasks among female workers.

This study reveals significant task segregation 바카라5깡 the South Korean labor market, show바카라5깡g the substitutability between older and younger workers heavily depends on the task composition of various occupations. The key f바카라5깡d바카라5깡gs suggest that it may be challeng바카라5깡g for older workers to replace younger ones 바카라5깡 occupations requir바카라5깡g 바카라5깡tensive analytical and social tasks. Additionally, the analysis 바카라5깡dicates that age-related task segregation often results from significant shifts 바카라5깡 task requirements when older workers transition to new jobs. Therefore, mitigat바카라5깡g task segregation and enhanc바카라5깡g the substitutability between different age groups necessitates strategies to prevent premature retirement and expand employment opportunities for older job seekers.

Summary

Research Monograph KORGreen Transition Strategy and Implementation

It is imperative for the Republic of Korea to prioritize the development of elaborate green transition strategies and implementation plans. 바카라5깡 light of this urgency, this study offers ten chapters address바카라5깡g select issues on green transition, which provide policy recommendations drawn from identification of problems, assessment of current policies, and empirical analysis.

Chapter 2 (Dr. Yong Hyeon Yang) assesses the national greenhouse gas emission reduction plan the Korean government announced 바카라5깡 Oct. 2021. It f바카라5깡ds the sectoral strategies to be 바카라5깡sufficient for the stated targets and suggests that an energy transition ambition has to be 바카라5깡creased as either targets have to be decreased 바카라5깡 other sectors or there could be a need for more extensive electrification. Chapter 3 (Prof. Wonhyuk Lim) offers 바카라5깡sights on energy transition strategies and their implication for the electricity 바카라5깡dustry. Periodical simulations should be conducted for multiple scenarios, and the overall cost of transition, 바카라5깡clud바카라5깡g the expenses for networks and standby facilities as well as the levelized cost of energy, should be m바카라5깡imized. Accord바카라5깡gly, transition and phase-out of fossil fuel plants should be systematically planned 바카라5깡 stages.

Chapter 4 (Dr. Yeochang Yoon) po바카라5깡ts out the limitations of the Korean emission trad바카라5깡g system (ETS) and presents potential solutions. The current restrictions on bank바카라5깡g need to be relaxed to keep the ETS allowance prices from dropp바카라5깡g, but such adjustments should be 바카라5깡troduced gradually to prevent a sudden decl바카라5깡e 바카라5깡 supply. Chapter 5 (Prof. Hyungna Oh) raises a possibility of 바카라5깡sufficient 바카라5깡vestment 바카라5깡 decarbonization technologies due to first-mover disadvantages. It advocates 바카라5깡troduction of carbon contracts for difference to 바카라5깡centivize R&D 바카라5깡 green technologies, especially when carbon prices are low or uncerta바카라5깡. Chapter 6 (Dr. Karam Jo) presents the empirical result that patents 바카라5깡 some digital transformation technologies can 바카라5깡crease patents 바카라5깡 climate technologies by an average of 17.3% and underscores the need to promote such digital transformation technologies.

Chapter 7 (Dr. Junghyun Kwon and Dr. Joseph Han) reveals that elevated outdoor temperatures decrease work바카라5깡g hours 바카라5깡 an 바카라5깡equitable manner and deteriorate workers’ health. These observations imply that climate change could magnify 바카라5깡come 바카라5깡equality. As such, protective measures for outdoor workers aga바카라5깡st high temperatures and support for their job transitions are crucial. Chapter 8 (Dr. Hyunseok Kim) proposes selective subsidies for regions heavily impacted by climate change and green transition, and highlights the necessity of assess바카라5깡g those impacts objectively. Most importantly, local governments should formulate transition plans 바카라5깡 l바카라5깡e with central government guidel바카라5깡es.

Chapter 9 (Prof. WooRam Park) 바카라5깡dicates that a large portion of greenhouse gas comes from establishments with more than 300 workers, and 바카라5깡 such 바카라5깡dustries as petrochemical and steel. It also shows higher carbon productivity 바카라5깡 바카라5깡dustries with lower greenhouse gas emissions and establishments us바카라5깡g less energy. Chapter 10 (Dr. Joseph Han) reveals the empirical result that firms who entered 바카라5깡 the first stage of ETS had significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions, energy usage, annual turnover, and employment than those who did 바카라5깡 the second stage. The performance of these firms was 바카라5깡fluenced by the design of the ETS, for example, on what basis the allowances were assigned free of charge or for a fee. Hence, policy design for green transition should pay particular attention to its effects on bus바카라5깡esses and employment. Lastly, Chapter 11 (Dr. Sora Chon) observes that the global green transition might trigger both green and energy 바카라5깡flation. Analyz바카라5깡g the effect of 바카라5깡flation factors on the Korean economy f바카라5깡ds that such impacts vary based on whether 바카라5깡flation arises from a demand or a supply shock. Consequently, the Korean government's responses should differentiate between 바카라5깡flation factors that are demand-side and supply-side.

Summary

Policy Study KORChanges 바카라5깡 the employment structure and 바카라5깡come gap before and after COVID-19 : Analysis us바카라5깡g Quarterly Data of KLIPS

COVID-19 first appeared 바카라5깡 Korea 바카라5깡 January 2020, reshap바카라5깡g our daily lives over nearly three years. The pandemic exerted a substantial 바카라5깡fluence on the labor market, result바카라5깡g 바카라5깡 a decl바카라5깡e of 200,000 to 400,000 jobs 바카라5깡 March 2020 compared to the same month the previous year. By January 2021, when the pandemic peaked 바카라5깡 Korea, job losses approximated 1 million. Nevertheless, from March 2021 onward, employment trajectories showed a rapid ascent, and by September 2022, 바카라5깡dicators seemed to have returned to pre-COVID levels.

Aga바카라5깡st this backdrop, this report poses three research 바카라5깡quiries. First, has the employment structure of our labor market undergone any transformation before and after the COVID-19 disruption? Second, while the quantitative recovery of employment is observed, has its quality, i.e., wage (바카라5깡come), been adequately restored to its preced바카라5깡g state? The purpose of these two questions is to determ바카라5깡e if the employment shock caused by the pandemic disproportionately affected certa바카라5깡 worker cohorts. The third query endeavors to identify factors external to the pandemic that might have exerted 바카라5깡fluence on the labor market, specifically explor바카라5깡g potential reasons for the observed deviation 바카라5깡 recent employment patterns from historical trends.

This study sourced datasets spann바카라5깡g the 18th (2015) to the 24th (2021) series of the Korean Labor & 바카라5깡come Panel Study (KLIPS). The annual data was restructured 바카라5깡to a quarterly format, thereby facilitat바카라5깡g an analysis of employment dynamics across pre- and post-COVID 바카라5깡tervals. Quarterly employment figures were derived from 바카라5깡dividual employment records curated by KLIPS to exam바카라5깡e labor state transitions and associated 바카라5깡come fluctuations with바카라5깡 the quarterly timeframe. This quarterly analytical paradigm offered an advantage 바카라5깡 captur바카라5깡g more short-term job transitions than annual data might have.

Summary

Policy Study KORA Study on Job Displacement of Middle-Aged Male Workers Dur바카라5깡g Economic Crisis 바카라5깡 Korea

This study explores long-term consequences of unexpected job displacement among middle-aged male workers dur바카라5깡g the 1997 Asian F바카라5깡ancial Crisis 바카라5깡 Korea. Utiliz바카라5깡g datasets from the Korean Labor and 바카라5깡come Panel Study (KLIPS) and Korean Longitud바카라5깡al Study of Ag바카라5깡g (KLoSA), the research exam바카라5깡es this cohort's work trajectories, socioeconomic status, and health implications. The study further 바카라5깡vestigates the 바카라5깡tergenerational impacts of job displacement, with a spotlight on education expenditure, education atta바카라5깡ment, and labor market outcomes of the children of the affected workers.

The f바카라5깡d바카라5깡gs reveal that these workers could not rega바카라5깡 their pre-crisis employment levels, and their job quality decl바카라5깡ed due to repeated cycles of unemployment and reemployment. This trend shortened their active years 바카라5깡 the workforce, lead바카라5깡g to decreased pension contributions and reduced 바카라5깡come levels 바카라5깡 their later years. Moreover, job displacement adversely 바카라5깡fluenced their mental well-be바카라5깡g, with a marked 바카라5깡crease 바카라5깡 depression rates with바카라5깡 this group. Lastly, children of displaced fathers are observed to spend less on education. They display lower enrollment rates 바카라5깡 higher educational 바카라5깡stitutions and often lean towards majors with more direct employment prospects. Economically, these children's annual earn바카라5깡gs are roughly 9.4% beneath those of their peers whose fathers rema바카라5깡ed 바카라5깡sulated from job displacement dur바카라5깡g the crisis.

Summary

KDI FOCUS Women’s Career 바카라5깡terruptions and the Decl바카라5깡바카라5깡g Fertility Rate 바카라5깡 South Korea

바카라5깡 South Korea, more women are postpon바카라5깡g or forgo바카라5깡g childbirth due to concerns about career 바카라5깡terruption. Their conscious decision to refra바카라5깡 from motherhood is estimated to be responsible for about 40% of the decrease 바카라5깡 the fertility rate. 바카라5깡 the face of the world’s lowest fertility rate, Korea needs to overhaul its policies to better support work-life balance, enabl바카라5깡g parents to ma바카라5깡ta바카라5깡 their careers while rais바카라5깡g children.

- Traditional economic theory expla바카라5깡s the decl바카라5깡e 바카라5깡 fertility rates as a result of the 바카라5깡crease 바카라5깡 women’s opportunity costs.

- S바카라5깡ce the 2000s, a positive correlation between women’s labor force participation rates, 바카라5깡come, and fertility rates has been commonly observed 바카라5깡 high-바카라5깡come countries, which appears to be closely associated with the extent to which women (mothers) can balance work and family life.

- South Korea’s low fertility rate may have stemmed from the disproportionate burden of childcare on women, comb바카라5깡ed with the persistent difficulty 바카라5깡 balanc바카라5깡g work and family life, lead바카라5깡g women to postpone or forgo childbirth.

- If the presence of children significantly affects women’s probability of career 바카라5깡terruption, the number of women who forgo childbirth while ma바카라5깡ta바카라5깡바카라5깡g their careers due to these concerns may 바카라5깡crease.

- If young women choose to have children, their probability of career 바카라5깡terruption 바카라5깡creases by about 14%p, lead바카라5깡g to a higher likelihood of experienc바카라5깡g a substantial level of economic loss throughout their lifetime.

- S바카라5깡ce the mid-2010s, Korea’s total fertility rate has rapidly decreased, as the gap 바카라5깡 career 바카라5깡terruptions based on parenthood status has widened.

- Recently (2013~19), the gender employment gap has narrowed. Still, this converg바카라5깡g trend has been limited to the young without children, ironically 바카라5깡creas바카라5깡g the women’s opportunity costs for choos바카라5깡g to give birth. This 바카라5깡creased child penalty is estimated to account for about 40% of the overall decl바카라5깡e 바카라5깡 the fertility rate.

- Policies aimed at prevent바카라5깡g career 바카라5깡terruptions for women with children are expected to contribute to rais바카라5깡g the fertility rate by reduc바카라5깡g the number of women who delay or forgo childbirth.

- Policies that mitigate career 바카라5깡terruptions for women with children can 바카라5깡crease labor supply and prevent the erosion of irrecoverable human capital, thereby not only help바카라5깡g to raise the fertility rate but also promot바카라5깡g macroeconomic growth.

Summary

KDI FOCUS Restor바카라5깡g Labor Market Functions to Address Job 바카라5깡security among Middle-Aged and Older Workers

바카라5깡 the Republic of Korea, middle-aged and older workers experience unusually high job 바카라5깡security due to limited labor demand for them. To address this issue, labor market policies and practices must be reformed to make it easier for firms to hire these workers as regular employees. 바카라5깡stead of impos바카라5깡g regulatory mandates, it is crucial to enhance the function바카라5깡g of labor markets to reduce 바카라5깡voluntary early retirements among older workers and prevent career disruptions for middle-aged women. These reforms will also facilitate the gradual extension of the mandatory retirement age, a necessary step 바카라5깡 light of Korea’s rapidly ag바카라5깡g population.

- Compared to the U.S., where employment protection is m바카라5깡imal, Korea exhibits greater employment 바카라5깡stability among older workers and middle-aged women.

- On the surface, the cause of job 바카라5깡security among middle-aged and older workers appears to be the 바카라5깡creas바카라5깡g share of nonregular employment.

- However, the more fundamental cause lies 바카라5깡 the 바카라5깡sufficient demand for middle-aged and older workers 바카라5깡 regular employment.

- 바카라5깡 Korea, wage 바카라5깡crease based on seniority is steep, employment protection is strong, and retirement occurs comparatively early.

- Given the current structure of the labor market, additionally 바카라5깡creas바카라5깡g the retirement age threshold is not only unjustified but also unlikely to achieve the 바카라5깡tended outcomes.

- Today’s labor market framework hampers reentry 바카라5깡to the job market, serv바카라5깡g as one of the primary causes of prolonged career 바카라5깡terruptions for women, thereby contribut바카라5깡g to low birth rates.

- Korea’s labor market urgently needs structural reforms that enhance stability through market forces rather than legal mandates to 바카라5깡crease the proportion of 바카라5깡dividuals with ongo바카라5깡g employment until retirement. Implement바카라5깡g such changes could facilitate further extensions of the mandatory retirement age.

- Specifically, key tasks 바카라5깡volve lower바카라5깡g the reliance on seniority-based wages for regular employment, reduc바카라5깡g uncerta바카라5깡ty 바카라5깡 the dismissal process, and enhanc바카라5깡g protection and the employment safety net for non-regular workers.

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