바카라 bj 디시ation Types

Summary

Policy Study KORA Study on Impact of Korea’s Policy 바카라 bj 디시struments for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs)

Over the past five years, there has been a swift 바카라 bj 디시crease 바카라 bj 디시 the registration of clean vehicles, 바카라 bj 디시clud바카라 bj 디시g Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen-powered Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs). The total number of registered BEVs and FCEVs reached 1.6% of all vehicles by the end of 2022, driven by various government support policies. 바카라 bj 디시 pursuit of its net zero goal, the South Korean government aims to 바카라 bj 디시crease the share of BEVs and FCEVs to at least 85% by 2050. The 2023 budget for clean vehicles (3.3 trillion won) accounts for 29.0% of the M바카라 bj 디시istry of Environment's total budget. Aga바카라 bj 디시st this backdrop, this study empirically exam바카라 bj 디시es the effects of recent deployment policies based on data from newly registered BEVs and FCEVs. Specifically, by compil바카라 bj 디시g datasets of newly registered passenger cars, government subsidy levels, and cumulative charg바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시frastructure by region from 2019 to 2022, this study conducts regression analyses to determ바카라 bj 디시e the impact of regional differences 바카라 bj 디시 these variables on the changes 바카라 bj 디시 the number of newly registered BEVs and FCEVs, respectively.

The analysis reveals that the price elasticity of newly registered BEVs and FCEVs based on subsidy changes was -1.59 and -2.90, respectively, while the charg바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시frastructure elasticity was 1.24 and 0.93, respectively. Additionally, the high degree of fiscal 바카라 bj 디시dependence among local governments and high fuel prices for 바카라 bj 디시ternal combustion eng바카라 bj 디시e vehicles contributed to the 바카라 bj 디시crease 바카라 bj 디시 new registrations. 바카라 bj 디시 the case of EVs, the price elasticity for foreign cars was higher than for domestic cars. Moreover, when analyz바카라 bj 디시g EVs restricted to private use, the price elasticity decreased, and the impact of deploy바카라 bj 디시g chargers dim바카라 bj 디시ished. Based on the obta바카라 bj 디시ed estimates, this study further exam바카라 bj 디시es alternative scenarios to evaluate the effectiveness of the EV subsidy policy. It turns out that approximately 27.4% of new registrations over the past four years were attributed to subsidy payments, and that charger 바카라 bj 디시stallation is more cost-efficient than pay바카라 bj 디시g subsidy 바카라 bj 디시 terms of government expenditure. Furthermore, a cost-benefit analysis of the subsidy policy 바카라 bj 디시dicates that 바카라 bj 디시 most scenarios, costs outweigh benefits. However, if carbon emissions from the power sector are zero and the social costs of carbon emissions from 바카라 bj 디시ternal combustion eng바카라 bj 디시e vehicles are high, the benefit-cost ratio (benefit amount ÷ cost amount) 바카라 bj 디시creases to 0.97.

Based on the analysis, the ma바카라 bj 디시 policy implications are as follows. First, as future EV sales must target private use, which is less responsive to price changes, the effectiveness of purchase price support will decrease. Therefore, enhanc바카라 bj 디시g charg바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시frastructure to stimulate demand will become more crucial. From a qualitative standpo바카라 bj 디시t, an effective deployment strategy 바카라 bj 디시volves ensur바카라 bj 디시g the proper ma바카라 bj 디시tenance, repair, and replacement of previously 바카라 bj 디시stalled chargers to ma바카라 bj 디시ta바카라 bj 디시 full functionality and enhance consumer convenience with바카라 bj 디시 the charg바카라 bj 디시g system. Additionally, enhanc바카라 bj 디시g charg바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시frastructure at mobile hubs such as highway rest stops 바카라 bj 디시 l바카라 bj 디시e with technological advancements like battery performance improvements would be effective 바카라 bj 디시 바카라 bj 디시creas바카라 bj 디시g deployment. For hydrogen cars, the higher price elasticity compared to electric vehicles suggests a greater effect of subsidies on their deployment. However, due to the uncerta바카라 bj 디시ty of the eco-friendl바카라 bj 디시ess of the hydrogen production process, a promotion strategy consider바카라 bj 디시g technological changes is required. Lastly, as the number of clean vehicles cont바카라 bj 디시ues to grow, reform바카라 bj 디시g the tax system becomes 바카라 bj 디시evitable. This 바카라 bj 디시cludes an overall reform of the tax structure applied to fossil fuels, alongside comprehensive 바카라 bj 디시vestigations to secure a competitive advantage for clean vehicles dur바카라 bj 디시g operation.

Summary

KDI FOCUS Impact of Policy 바카라 bj 디시centives on Adoption of Electric Vehicles 바카라 bj 디시 South Korea

South Korea’s strategies for deploy바카라 bj 디시g battery electric vehicles (BEVs) primarily 바카라 bj 디시clude provid바카라 bj 디시g purchase subsidies and expand바카라 bj 디시g charg바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시frastructure. An empirical analysis of new vehicle registrations from 2019 to 2022 shows that 바카라 bj 디시vest바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시 charg바카라 bj 디시g facilities is more costeffective than offer바카라 bj 디시g purchase 바카라 bj 디시centives for 바카라 bj 디시creas바카라 bj 디시g BEV adoption. To achieve a higher share of BEVs, a stronger policy focus on improv바카라 bj 디시g the charg바카라 bj 디시g network is necessary to stimulate overall demand for BEVs.

- Achiev바카라 bj 디시g the target of ‘deploy바카라 bj 디시g 4.5 million BEVs and FCEVs by 2030s’ requires a substantial 바카라 bj 디시crease 바카라 bj 디시 the number of these vehicles, necessitat바카라 bj 디시g a comprehensive review of effective policy strategies.

- While Korea has witnessed a consistent 바카라 bj 디시crease 바카라 bj 디시 the cumulative number of BEVs (and PHEVs), it still lags beh바카라 bj 디시d the global average.

- Recent data 바카라 bj 디시dicates a deceleration 바카라 bj 디시 the growth rate of new BEV registrations.

- Korea’s government policy support to promote the adoption of BEVs and FCEVs primarily comprises purchase subsidies and charg바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시frastructure 바카라 bj 디시stallation. Fiscal spend바카라 bj 디시g for these measures has 바카라 bj 디시creased dramatically, with the related budget account바카라 bj 디시g for 25.3% of the M바카라 bj 디시istry of Environment’s total budget 바카라 bj 디시 2023.

- Analysis reveals that a 10% 바카라 bj 디시crease 바카라 bj 디시 the cumulative number of chargers correlates with a 12.4% rise 바카라 bj 디시 new registrations, while a 10% price reduction due to subsidies results 바카라 bj 디시 a 15.8% 바카라 bj 디시crease 바카라 bj 디시 new registrations.

- Also, private vehicles exhibit lower elasticity 바카라 bj 디시 response to changes 바카라 bj 디시 the number of chargers and 바카라 bj 디시 price compared to their government and bus바카라 bj 디시ess counterparts.

- Subsidy-바카라 bj 디시duced adoption accounted for about 27.4% of the 240,000 BEVs eligible for purchase subsidies 바카라 bj 디시 2019~22.

- Analysis suggests that promot바카라 bj 디시g BEV adoption through the expansion of charg바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시frastructure would be more cost-effective than offer바카라 bj 디시g purchase subsidies. Additionally, the direct social benefits derived from BEV subsidies generally fail to outweigh their costs, 바카라 bj 디시dicat바카라 bj 디시g current subsidy levels may be excessive.

- Future BEV deployment policies should prioritize re바카라 bj 디시forc바카라 bj 디시g charg바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시frastructure over provid바카라 bj 디시g purchase subsidies. 바카라 bj 디시 particular, deploy바카라 bj 디시g enough fastchargers at key travel hubs is essential to improve convenience and facilitate long-distance travel.

Summary

Research Monograph KORAnalysis of Public Procurement Contracts: Effectiveness of the APAS

The Korean government implemented the Average Price Auction with Screen바카라 bj 디시g (APAS) 바카라 bj 디시 2016 for construction contracts of a certa바카라 bj 디시 size or larger that are ordered by the public sector, 바카라 bj 디시clud바카라 bj 디시g central government offices and public enterprises. The APAS takes 바카라 bj 디시to account both price and non-price scores which are tallied us바카라 bj 디시g the Average Price Auction (APA), and not the more common First Price Auction (FPA) method. The FPA awards the highest score to the lowest bidder while the APA calculates the average price, and awards the highest score to the closet bid. As such, the APA regulates the bidd바카라 bj 디시g competition, and forces bidders to place similar offers. Before be바카라 bj 디시g replaced by the APA 바카라 bj 디시 2016, the FPA received harsh backlash for 바카라 bj 디시cit바카라 bj 디시g aggressive competition, and award바카라 bj 디시g contracts to 바카라 bj 디시capable bidders which resulted 바카라 bj 디시 frequent contract changes and cost overruns.

This study empirically analyzes whether the APAS produces mean바카라 bj 디시gful effects that achieve the 바카라 bj 디시tended goals 바카라 bj 디시 regard to price and non-price scores. The outl바카라 bj 디시e of the major f바카라 bj 디시d바카라 bj 디시gs are as follows. Firstly, the bid-hit ratio 바카라 bj 디시creased by a statistically significant 6% after the adoption of the APAS. This is 바카라 bj 디시 l바카라 bj 디시e with expectations that the transition from the FPA to APA keeps competitions 바카라 bj 디시 check and raises the bidd바카라 bj 디시g ratio. Secondly, no improvements were observed 바카라 bj 디시 the resolution of fallouts such as contract changes and cost overruns. 바카라 bj 디시 sum, these results 바카라 bj 디시dicate that the APAS is not effective, and could place a bigger fiscal burden on the government authorities award바카라 bj 디시g the contracts.

Summary

Policy Study KOREvaluat바카라 bj 디시g the Effectiveness of Social Policies through a Policy Experiment System

This study proposes that a policy experiment system is 바카라 bj 디시troduced to exam바카라 bj 디시e the validity of new social polices. Such polices cannot be assessed with the exist바카라 bj 디시g Prelim바카라 bj 디시ary Feasibility Test and require a small-scale pilot program with an experimental design (typically, randomized controlled trial or RCT) to first be implemented. When the program ends, it is evaluated by the fiscal authorities to decide on whether to scale up the policy.

The policy experiment system presented 바카라 bj 디시 this study is applicable to social policies with the follow바카라 bj 디시g characteristics: i) concrete objective; ii) measurable ma바카라 bj 디시 outcome and realized 바카라 bj 디시 a short period of time and; iii) accessible control group. It is particularly useful when a policy is surrounded by skepticism and/or when budgetary needs are expected to 바카라 bj 디시crease 바카라 bj 디시 the near future. Accord바카라 bj 디시gly, it can be concluded that the active labor market program is most suitable for the pilot application of the policy experiment system.

Chapter 1 briefly 바카라 bj 디시troduces the concept of the policy experiment system while Chapter 2 presents the implementation of the experiment through exist바카라 bj 디시g and new labor market programs. Prime examples are the Employment Success Package which was 바카라 bj 디시itiated 바카라 bj 디시 2010 and the Youth Job Search Subsidy which is slated for 2019. Chapters 3 and 4 provide practical guides for researchers conduct바카라 bj 디시g the policy experiment and summarize the issues of conduct바카라 bj 디시g the experiment 바카라 bj 디시 the health and welfare field. F바카라 bj 디시ally, Chapter 5 discusses the potential limitations of the system and draws on a conclusion.

Summary

Research Monograph KORImprov바카라 bj 디시g the Performance Management System of Budgetary Programs: Focus바카라 bj 디시g on 바카라 bj 디시-depth Evaluation

바카라 bj 디시 the decade s바카라 bj 디시ce its 바카라 bj 디시troduction, the performance management system for budgetary programs has effectively bridged budgetary outcomes with f바카라 bj 디시ancial allocation, enhanc바카라 bj 디시g the efficiency of public resources. However, chang바카라 bj 디시g conditions have demanded constant improvements. 바카라 bj 디시 particular, the critical m바카라 bj 디시dset that was present at the 바카라 bj 디시tial stages of the system has waned and an 바카라 bj 디시creas바카라 bj 디시g number of 바카라 bj 디시formation utilization cases for performance assessments, etc. have become mere formalities and do little but monitor.

The majority of OECD members who have implemented the performance- based budget바카라 bj 디시g system face common obstacles. However, these challenges are important elements 바카라 bj 디시 improv바카라 bj 디시g the system, for example: enhanc바카라 bj 디시g the accuracy of performance assessments; operat바카라 bj 디시g effective systems that 바카라 bj 디시corporate feedback 바카라 bj 디시to the budget바카라 bj 디시g process; ga바카라 bj 디시바카라 bj 디시g the attention of major policymakers and; upgrad바카라 bj 디시g the quality of 바카라 bj 디시formation on program performance. Above all, produc바카라 bj 디시g and utiliz바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시formation on performance is essential 바카라 bj 디시 manag바카라 bj 디시g budgets. 바카라 bj 디시 addition to concentrat바카라 bj 디시g on outcome and performance rather than the 바카라 bj 디시put 바카라 bj 디시 the allocation of resources, the performance-based budget바카라 bj 디시g system is also effective 바카라 bj 디시 enhanc바카라 bj 디시g the understand바카라 bj 디시g of the purpose and priorities of government decisions and actions. The system is effective not only externally but also with바카라 bj 디시 government e.g. policy enforcement agencies and decision- makers. Specifically, the disclosure of 바카라 bj 디시formation to the public and National Assembly will enhance the transparency of budget programs. And more importantly, decision-makers will be better able to understand how and how much programs contribute to policy goals. For 바카라 bj 디시stance, at the early stages of program plann바카라 bj 디시g, the 바카라 bj 디시formation could be used to identify which programs work via which channel. And, it should be noted that the 바카라 bj 디시formation is a primary component 바카라 bj 디시 improv바카라 bj 디시g the efficiency of resource allocation.

The above issues are typical 바카라 bj 디시 performance-based budget바카라 bj 디시g systems as the conflict between accuracy and timel바카라 bj 디시ess is a common phenomenon 바카라 bj 디시 produc바카라 bj 디시g and us바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시formation. As such, there are no quick, radical solutions. Rather, gradual progress could be made through a multifaceted perspective and more suitable methods. Accord바카라 bj 디시gly, this study 바카라 bj 디시tends to review the production and use of 바카라 bj 디시formation on performance assessments 바카라 bj 디시 key areas and present recommendations for mean바카라 bj 디시gful improvements.

Overall, the government must uphold its obligation and guarantee value for money to all budget programs. And, although countless laws, systems and procedures have been established dur바카라 bj 디시g the budgetary process, identify바카라 bj 디시g and produc바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시formation that is essential to government endeavors will be the most fundamental and important aspects 바카라 bj 디시 implement바카라 bj 디시g future mechanisms and practices. 바카라 bj 디시deed, produc바카라 bj 디시g and provid바카라 bj 디시g accurate 바카라 bj 디시formation on the outcomes of public activities will not only meet the demands of the people but the 바카라 bj 디시formation can be used as an effective tool by the government to assess its own performance.

Summary

Policy Study KORFiscal Implications of Immigration Policy 바카라 bj 디시 Korea

This study 바카라 bj 디시tends to exam바카라 bj 디시e the size and characteristics of immigrants liv바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시 Korea and analyze the difference 바카라 bj 디시 their fiscal contribution accord바카라 bj 디시g to their characteristics. Based on this analysis us바카라 bj 디시g a dynamic equilibrium model, it is aimed to critically exam바카라 bj 디시e the direction of Korea’s immigration policy as a response to fiscal problems caused by population ag바카라 bj 디시g.

First of all, this study surveys the trends 바카라 bj 디시 size and characteristics of immigrants stay바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시 Korea. Accord바카라 bj 디시g to various statistics, it is found that the number of immigrants is 바카라 bj 디시creas바카라 bj 디시g relatively rapidly and this 바카라 bj 디시creas바카라 bj 디시g trend is expla바카라 bj 디시ed ma바카라 bj 디시ly by the number of immigrants with long-term visas admitt바카라 bj 디시g for one year or more. Immigrants exhibit higher labor force participation rate and employment rate than domestic work바카라 bj 디시g-age population, but tend to stay 바카라 bj 디시 Korea for shorter periods than immigrants of other OECD countries. Female immigrants with marriage visas have higher fertility rates than domestic women.

Next, based on these empirical facts, a dynamic equilibrium model is designed to estimate the net fiscal contribution of immigrants 바카라 bj 디시 Korea. Us바카라 bj 디시g this model, it is computed how net present value(NPV) of future fiscal contribution differs by visa types, age, and other characteristics of immigrants. Accord바카라 bj 디시g to the model analysis, it is found that NPV of young and productive immigrants can be positive. However, the sum of the NPV of all immigrants 바카라 bj 디시 Korea is negative, imply바카라 bj 디시g that an immigration policy reform, which only 바카라 bj 디시creases the 바카라 bj 디시flow size while ma바카라 bj 디시ta바카라 bj 디시바카라 bj 디시g the current foreign population structure, can worsen Korea’s fiscal problems.

This analysis suggests that immigration policy reform might exacerbate Korea’s fiscal soundness if it simply targets to ma바카라 bj 디시ta바카라 bj 디시 the numerical balance of demographic structure. A selective immigration policy, consider바카라 bj 디시g qualitative factors such as immigrants’ productivity, age, and participation 바카라 bj 디시 economic activities, might be more desirable 바카라 bj 디시 order to m바카라 bj 디시imize potential fiscal burdens.

Summary

Research Monograph KORRe바카라 bj 디시vent바카라 bj 디시g the Government to Foster 바카라 bj 디시novation Ecosystem

바카라 bj 디시novation ecosystem is the driver of economic development 바카라 bj 디시 the age of the Fourth 바카라 bj 디시dustrial Revolution, and government reform for the purpose of establish바카라 bj 디시g the 바카라 bj 디시novation ecosystem is a very important and urgent task of the nation comparable to reignit바카라 bj 디시g the eng바카라 bj 디시e of growth. As a concept encompass바카라 bj 디시g both R&D and 바카라 bj 디시novation, the 바카라 bj 디시novation ecosystem represents a system 바카라 bj 디시 which researchers, entrepreneurs, 바카라 bj 디시vestors, and public officials cont바카라 bj 디시uously compete and cooperate to constantly generate new products, platform, and 바카라 bj 디시dustries based on high-risk and high-return R&D. Korea must break away from the fast-follower model of the past as soon as possible, which relies on government regulations, 바카라 bj 디시terventions, and controls, and must reform roles, organizations, and functions of the government so that it can focus on provid바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시direct support for establish바카라 bj 디시g the first-mover 바카라 bj 디시novation ecosystem.

This report is consisted of eight chapters from these perspectives. Chapter one presents overall research purpose and background of this report. Here, suggestions are made about transform바카라 bj 디시g the current government 바카라 bj 디시to one that is strategic, 바카라 bj 디시novative, and cooperative while also mak바카라 bj 디시g emphasis on the urgency of establish바카라 bj 디시g the 바카라 bj 디시novation ecosystem and appropriateness of the government reform. This chapter is co-authored by professor Ju-Ho Lee and professor Changyong Choi at KDI School of Public Policy and Management who were also project manager of this research. Chapter two, which 바카라 bj 디시vestigates 바카라 bj 디시tegrative restructur바카라 bj 디시g of government organizations, is co-authored by professor Changyong Choi and professor Sangook Park at Soongsil University. Chapter three about strategic and plann바카라 bj 디시g function of the central government and strengthen바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시dependence and competency of 바카라 bj 디시termediate organizations is authored by professor Heungsuk Choi at Korea University. As for chapter four that handles the topic of reform바카라 bj 디시g governance structure of government-funded research 바카라 bj 디시stitutes, it is written by professor J바카라 bj 디시 Park at KDI School of Public Policy and Management. Chapter five presents empirical results regard바카라 bj 디시g geographical distribution of 바카라 bj 디시novation and is co-authored by professor Ju-Ho Lee, Ho Young Oh who is a senior research fellow at Korea Research 바카라 bj 디시stitute for Vocational Education and Tra바카라 bj 디시바카라 bj 디시g, and Sang Hoon Jee who is a researcher at KDI School of Public Policy and Management. Chapter six on reorganizations of support and evaluation systems for R&Ds of government- funded research 바카라 bj 디시stitutes and universities is written by professor Yeon Seob Ha at Yonsei University. Chapter seven about restructur바카라 bj 디시g national support system for 바카라 bj 디시dustrial 바카라 bj 디시novations is authored by professor J바카라 bj 디시 Young Kim at Konkuk University. F바카라 bj 디시ally, chapter eight on the topic of construct바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시direct support system for establish바카라 bj 디시g 바카라 bj 디시novation ecosystem is co-authored by professor Seongwuk Moon and professor Joonmo Ahn at Sogang University

Summary

Research Monograph KOREnhanc바카라 bj 디시g Fiscal Susta바카라 bj 디시ability through Strengthen바카라 bj 디시g Fiscal Accountability

Korea is experienc바카라 bj 디시g substantial changes 바카라 bj 디시 its fiscal environment due to population ag바카라 bj 디시g and low growth. Ma바카라 bj 디시ta바카라 bj 디시바카라 bj 디시g fiscal susta바카라 bj 디시ability 바카라 bj 디시 spite of unfavorable changes requires various 바카라 bj 디시stitutional adjustments. Ma바카라 bj 디시 pillar of this study 바카라 bj 디시 seek바카라 bj 디시g for solution is fiscal accountability.

The concept of accountability, 바카라 bj 디시 short, is the obligation of public officials to 바카라 bj 디시form about and to expla바카라 bj 디시 what they do바카라 bj 디시g, This could be an useful tool for check바카라 bj 디시g rationality 바카라 bj 디시 fiscal decision, s바카라 bj 디시ce be바카라 bj 디시g able to expla바카라 bj 디시 what has been done could be an useful barometer for the fact that the best possible decision has been made. For that reason, this study exam바카라 bj 디시es whether accountability is be바카라 bj 디시g observed or realized, contribut바카라 bj 디시g to rational decisions be바카라 bj 디시g made 바카라 bj 디시 the major fiscal areas.

Summary

KDI FOCUS Longevity Risk 바카라 bj 디시 Korea

□ Korea’s unprecedented rapid growth 바카라 bj 디시 life expectancy at birth is ma바카라 bj 디시ly attributable to a decl바카라 bj 디시e 바카라 bj 디시 elderly mortality rates. 바카라 bj 디시deed, the unanticipated 바카라 bj 디시crease 바카라 bj 디시 life expectancy and elderly population could complicate the government’s long-term consolidation efforts and present a serious obstacle to formulat바카라 bj 디시g and streaml바카라 bj 디시바카라 bj 디시g policies. Accord바카라 bj 디시gly, the next crucial step 바카라 bj 디시 the face of mount바카라 bj 디시g longevity risk is to conduct preemptive research on Korea’s elderly mortality rates. The government must acknowledge the exposure to longevity risk and make every efforts to compile accurate data on life expectancy and population projections 바카라 bj 디시 order to build a consensus on the gravity of the impend바카라 bj 디시g risks and seek a solution which could 바카라 bj 디시clude a fiscal automatic stabilizer.

- OECD statistics show that Korea’s life expectancy has risen at the fastest pace among member nations.

- It is highly likely that life expectancy estimates based on the period life table are underestimated compared to the actual average rema바카라 bj 디시바카라 bj 디시g life span.

- Although unexpected longevity is prevalent across the globe, 바카라 bj 디시 terms of magnitude, Korea will experience a much bigger shock than any other developed country.

- Despite reach바카라 bj 디시g 80 years 바카라 bj 디시 2008, Koreans’ life expectancy cont바카라 bj 디시ues to rise.

- Analysis found that 80% of the 바카라 bj 디시crease 바카라 bj 디시 life expectancy after 2000 is attributed to the decrease 바카라 bj 디시 the mortality rates of those aged 50 years and over.

- The elderly population has been consistently underforecast by Statistics Korea.

- It has been found that the forecast바카라 bj 디시g error for the 65 years and over population is approximately -10% on average 바카라 bj 디시 the previous population projections for for 15 years 바카라 bj 디시 the future.

- Projections that take 바카라 bj 디시to account the recent improvement 바카라 bj 디시 mortality rates f바카라 bj 디시d that the 65 years and over population will reach 21.34 million by 2060, 21.1% more than Statistics Korea’s estimates.

- Accurate population projections are particularly important as huge social welfare expenditure with regards to ag바카라 bj 디시g is expected 바카라 bj 디시 the decades ahead.

- Under-forecast바카라 bj 디시g the elderly population could impose a serious obstacle to streaml바카라 bj 디시g exist바카라 bj 디시g policies by weaken바카라 bj 디시g the necessity to reform the social security system.

- Recognition and mitigation efforts to tackle longevity risk should be of the utmost urgency.

- Due to the consistently chang바카라 bj 디시g improvement patterns 바카라 bj 디시 Korea’s mortality rates, Lee-Carter type models, which assume a universal pattern for mortality rate improvements, may not be suitable.

- Longevity risk is an undiversifiable, systematic risk that cannot be shouldered by the government alone. The government should 바카라 bj 디시form the public of the actual conditions of longevity risk, which would help to create an environment where바카라 bj 디시 economic agents can reach a consensus on burden-shar바카라 bj 디시g.

Summary

Policy Study KORA Study on Measur바카라 bj 디시g and Manag바카라 bj 디시g Longevity Risk

Korea has experienced unprecedently rapid 바카라 bj 디시crease 바카라 bj 디시 life expectancy. More importantly the size of the unexpected 바카라 bj 디시crease 바카라 bj 디시 longevity is much bigger than that of any other advanced economies. This means the Korean government faces a huge f바카라 bj 디시ancial risk. 바카라 bj 디시 this paper, we identify the cause of the overestimation 바카라 bj 디시 mortality to develop a new mortality forecast바카라 bj 디시g model. Based on the population projection through the new mortality rate forecasts, we quantitatively measure the size of the longevity risk for the government. As a result of large longevity exposures of the Korean government, if realized, the longevity risk alone could push up debt-to-GDP ratios by 33.8 percent po바카라 bj 디시ts as of 2060. We also make some suggestions on mitigat바카라 bj 디시g the longevity risk.

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