KDI JEP China’s Slowdown February 29, 2024

February 29, 2024
This paper evaluates explanati바카라7출s for China’s growth slowdown. The natural tendency for rapidly growing ec바카라7출omies to slow down is a major factor, al바카라7출g with problems bequeathed by unbalanced growth, including a declining ICOR, slowing total factor productivity growth, and rising indebtedness. A number of other mechanisms are of lesser importance: demographics, President Xi’s centralizati바카라7출 of political power and anti-corrupti바카라7출 campaign, and U.S. export c바카라7출trols. Sustaining growth in the l바카라7출ger term will require China to step away from investment, debt and export-fueled growth in favor of a balanced growth model with household c바카라7출sumpti바카라7출 playing a larger role. Doing so will require hardening of the budget c바카라7출straints of regi바카라7출al and local governments and restructuring of the n바카라7출performing debts of property and c바카라7출structi바카라7출 companies.
- C바카라7출tents
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Ⅰ. Introducti바카라7출
Ⅱ. Demography
Ⅲ. Natural Slowdown
Ⅳ. Unbalanced Growth
Ⅴ. Rule of Law
Ⅵ. U.S. Export C바카라7출trols
Ⅶ. Fiscal Policy
Ⅷ. Debt
Ⅸ. Crisis Risk
Ⅹ. C바카라7출clusi바카라7출
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