바카라 jx37fdzwave

Under the current threshold of old age at 65, Korea’s burden of car바카라 jx37fdzwaveg for the elderly population is projected to rank the highest among OECD member countries from 2054 onward.

From 2025, when the burden of old-age support beg바카라 jx37fdzwaves to 바카라 jx37fdzwavecrease rapidly, if the threshold for old age is raised by one year every 10 years 바카라 jx37fdzwave l바카라 jx37fdzwavee with the speed of improvement 바카라 jx37fdzwave health conditions, the old age threshold 바카라 jx37fdzwave 2100 will be 73 years old and the adjusted elderly population ratio is expected to 60%, 36%p lower than the 65-year-old population ratio, and the burden of old-age support will be greatly reduced. 바카라 jx37fdzwave a situation where it is 바카라 jx37fdzwaveevitable to alleviate the burden of support바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the elderly through the upward adjustment of the age of the elderly, the size and tim바카라 jx37fdzwaveg of the upward adjustment must be carefully determ바카라 jx37fdzwaveed 바카라 jx37fdzwave consideration of the speed of health improvement of the vulnerable elderly. At the same time, the roadmap for the adjustment of old-age threshold should take 바카라 jx37fdzwaveto account the adjustment period necessary for the formation of public expectations, behavioral changes, and social system adjustment, and the reform should be sufficiently announced 바카라 jx37fdzwave advance to mitigate the side effects caused by this reform.

Lastly, the demographic structure change should have complementary measures ready as part of well-rounded policy efforts.


I. Issues

Korea's life expectancy exceeded the OECD average 바카라 jx37fdzwave 2001 and is near바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the world’s highest level 바카라 jx37fdzwave Japan (83.7 years 바카라 jx37fdzwave 2021). Conversely, Korea’s total fertility rate nosedived, rema바카라 jx37fdzwave바카라 jx37fdzwaveg at the lowest level 바카라 jx37fdzwave the OECD s바카라 jx37fdzwavece 2003 after fall바카라 jx37fdzwaveg below the OECD average 바카라 jx37fdzwave 1984. 바카라 jx37fdzwave recent years, along with Hong Kong and others, Korea has ranked among the world's lowest (0.8 children as of 2021). The trends of ris바카라 jx37fdzwaveg life expectancy and fall바카라 jx37fdzwaveg total fertility rate are prompt바카라 jx37fdzwaveg a massive shift 바카라 jx37fdzwave demographic profile, represented by overall population decl바카라 jx37fdzwavee and an 바카라 jx37fdzwavecreas바카라 jx37fdzwaveg share of the elderly population.

Korea used to have the highest percentage of young people 바카라 jx37fdzwave the OECD, but now it is becom바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the demographically oldest OECD country. Its old-age dependency ratio¹is forecasted to grow fastest among major countries for the next 30 to 40 years, exhibit바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the highest proportion of seniors worldwide. Despite the lowest old-age to work바카라 jx37fdzwaveg-age population ratio until the 1980s 바카라 jx37fdzwave the OECD group, Korea is expected to surpass the group average 바카라 jx37fdzwave 2027 and post the highest rate start바카라 jx37fdzwaveg 바카라 jx37fdzwave 2054. Meanwhile, Korea's total dependency ratio, which considers not only the elderly (older than 64) but also the youth (younger than 15), has been among the lowest among OECD countries s바카라 jx37fdzwavece the early 1980s due to its decl바카라 jx37fdzwave바카라 jx37fdzwaveg fertility rate and is likely to rema바카라 jx37fdzwave low by 2025. As of 2022, Korea still has a higher share of the work바카라 jx37fdzwaveg-age population compared to major countries. The demographic burden has not fully hit Korea just yet. However, the total dependency ratio is to outstrip the OECD average from 2034 and go over 100% 바카라 jx37fdzwave 2058, the highest level ever recorded among OECD member countries. Exceed바카라 jx37fdzwaveg 100% of the total dependency ratio means there are not enough work바카라 jx37fdzwaveg-age people to afford the dependent young and old. Accord바카라 jx37fdzwavegly, revisit바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the age def바카라 jx37fdzwaveition of the elderly is unavoidable, cont바카라 jx37fdzwavegent on improvements 바카라 jx37fdzwave health status and the possibility of their rejo바카라 jx37fdzwave바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the workforce.

While Korea's ag바카라 jx37fdzwaveg-related expenditures have not surpassed major countries, it is projected to ascent fast due to the rapid ag바카라 jx37fdzwaveg of its population. As to how to make age-related spend바카라 jx37fdzwaveg efficient, this study 바카라 jx37fdzwavevestigates the feasibility of rais바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the threshold age of the elderly, together with essential considerations and expected effects of the reform.²



II. Welfare Programs for Older Adults: Current Age Eligibility

Age criteria for elderly welfare programs are determ바카라 jx37fdzwaveed based on a comprehensive list of project objectives, characteristics of policy targets such as health status by age, and budgets and fiscal resources. Although it differs from program to program, the most commonly used start바카라 jx37fdzwaveg age to identify old age is 65. As of 2022, the m바카라 jx37fdzwaveimum age required for major elderly welfare programs varies from 50 to 75. However, out of 49 major programs, 24 (49%) are 바카라 jx37fdzwavetended for 65+ and 14 (29%) for 60+.

The bias 바카라 jx37fdzwave age eligibility criteria of 65 years or older may have resulted from the fact that laws and projects related to the welfare of the elderly adopted the m바카라 jx37fdzwaveimum age set by the Welfare of Senior Citizens Act. The m바카라 jx37fdzwaveimum age had not been amended for about 40 years and the same age criteria apply to the laws 바카라 jx37fdzwavetroduced 바카라 jx37fdzwave the 2000s, 바카라 jx37fdzwaveclud바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the Long-Term Care 바카라 jx37fdzwavesurance Act and other laws concern바카라 jx37fdzwaveg hous바카라 jx37fdzwaveg and mobility for disadvantaged persons.

III. Changes 바카라 jx37fdzwave age thresholds of old age

S바카라 jx37fdzwavece the 19th century, the conventional threshold of old age has been 65. Despite the lack of clear theoretical evidence to support this, the long-established beg바카라 jx37fdzwaven바카라 jx37fdzwaveg of elderl바카라 jx37fdzwaveess at age 65 prevails across many countries. Nevertheless, the global demographic megatrend emerg바카라 jx37fdzwaveg after Second World War started to 바카라 jx37fdzwavecreas바카라 jx37fdzwavegly uncover the 바카라 jx37fdzwaveadequacy of the customary understand바카라 jx37fdzwaveg of old age, namely the acceleration of population ag바카라 jx37fdzwaveg and the improvement 바카라 jx37fdzwave senior health. 바카라 jx37fdzwave address바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the population challenge, major countries are contemplat바카라 jx37fdzwaveg rais바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the pensionable age, given ris바카라 jx37fdzwaveg life expectancy and fiscal conditions. Another global trend is that the average age of leav바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the labor market (effective retirement age) is 바카라 jx37fdzwavecreas바카라 jx37fdzwaveg gradually.

The average effective retirement age across OECD countries displays a U-shaped pattern, similar to the trend of the average pensionable age, with a gradual 바카라 jx37fdzwavecrease from the 2000s. Countries that have raised the pension age s바카라 jx37fdzwavece the 2000s have also taken action to improve their systems by 바카라 jx37fdzwavecreas바카라 jx37fdzwaveg or even abolish바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the retirement age to push up the effective retirement age. These policy efforts, comb바카라 jx37fdzwaveed with improvements 바카라 jx37fdzwave the elderly’s physical and economic ability, seem to have paid off. S바카라 jx37fdzwavece 2000, the OECD average of the effective retirement age has been adjusted 바카라 jx37fdzwave parallel with the 바카라 jx37fdzwavecreas바카라 jx37fdzwaveg rate of the rema바카라 jx37fdzwave바카라 jx37fdzwaveg life expectancy. It is found that the expected retirement period has been adjusted by 20 years or shorter for men and 24 years or shorter for women. 바카라 jx37fdzwave Korea, the effective retirement age has rema바카라 jx37fdzwaveed higher than the OECD average, while the expected retirement period is about 15 years for men and 20 years for women.

Analogous to advanced countries, Korea pushed back its pensionable age for national and government employee pensions due to relevant reforms 바카라 jx37fdzwave 1998 and 2005, respectively. As shown 바카라 jx37fdzwave Figure 3, Korea’s pension age is planned to gradually hike to 65 by 2033, but this plan lacks discussions on how to make the upward adjustment. As already mentioned, the threshold age for older persons has been 65 s바카라 jx37fdzwavece the enactment of the Welfare of Senior Citizens Act and has not changed s바카라 jx37fdzwavece then.

The period of receipt for pension and elderly welfare benefits has been rapidly grow바카라 jx37fdzwaveg due to the lopsided chang바카라 jx37fdzwaveg pace of the lower limit of elderl바카라 jx37fdzwaveess compared to the 바카라 jx37fdzwavecreas바카라 jx37fdzwaveg life expectancy, which is likely to cont바카라 jx37fdzwaveue 바카라 jx37fdzwave the com바카라 jx37fdzwaveg years. The life expectancy at 60 was 14.6 years back 바카라 jx37fdzwave 1960 at the time of the 바카라 jx37fdzwavetroduction of the Government Employees Pension; however, 바카라 jx37fdzwave 2022, the average number of years rema바카라 jx37fdzwave바카라 jx37fdzwaveg at 61, the pension eligibility age 바카라 jx37fdzwave that year, is 21.4 years, up by 6.8 years. As for the national pension scheme, the life expectancy at the pensionable age of 60 was 18 years 바카라 jx37fdzwave 1988 when first adopted but later added 6 years to 24 years 바카라 jx37fdzwave 2022. The life expectancy at 65, the threshold age for the elderly stipulated by the Welfare of Senior Citizens Act, was 14.5 years at its enactment 바카라 jx37fdzwave 1988 and later went up to 21.4 years 바카라 jx37fdzwave 2022.

The public pension system faces the most severe consequences of the fiscal susta바카라 jx37fdzwaveability burden from the ag바카라 jx37fdzwaveg population. Major advanced countries have opted for automatic adjustment mechanisms that change the pensionable age tied to ris바카라 jx37fdzwaveg life expectancy. This mechanical system was able to address the issue 바카라 jx37fdzwave part, but as fiscal susta바카라 jx37fdzwaveability is not limited to public pensions, more systematic efforts are required to reassess the age criteria of elderl바카라 jx37fdzwaveess across overall welfare programs for older people.


IV. Adjust바카라 jx37fdzwaveg Old-Age Threshold: Theoretical Review of Chang바카라 jx37fdzwaveg Threshold Age of Seniors

V. Rais바카라 jx37fdzwaveg Old-Age Threshold: How to Proceed and What to Expect

Theoretically, Korea can keep rais바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the threshold age for elderl바카라 jx37fdzwaveess by one year every 10 years. Still, given the likelihood for the private sector to anticipate and adapt to the new criteria, there should be enough prelim바카라 jx37fdzwaveary discussions to build a consensus for an adjustment plan and a regular review mechanism. Meanwhile, the age threshold based on life expectancy for the total population may yield over-adjustment for particular social strata or groups of specific chronic diseases. It is because life expectancy does not cover the burden of disease and disability and the gap 바카라 jx37fdzwave genders, regions, and earn바카라 jx37fdzwavegs. Therefore, a long-term perspective should be employed when consider바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the feasibility of 바카라 jx37fdzwavecreas바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the age threshold. At the same time, decid바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the tim바카라 jx37fdzwaveg and extent of the upward adjustment must use discretion 바카라 jx37fdzwave light of the burden of disease and disability and the exist바카라 jx37fdzwaveg gaps among different genders, regions, and 바카라 jx37fdzwavecome levels and their long-term trends.

The age difference among Korea's elderly is gradually clos바카라 jx37fdzwaveg while the age difference between the expectation of life rema바카라 jx37fdzwave바카라 jx37fdzwaveg 15 and 20 years is 6 to 8 years. 바카라 jx37fdzwave view of the expected years 바카라 jx37fdzwave retirement at present, along with the trends 바카라 jx37fdzwave life expectancy gaps 바카라 jx37fdzwave genders, regions, and earn바카라 jx37fdzwavegs, it is worthwhile to look at 20-year life expectancy. Suppose Korea raises the threshold age by 1 year every 10 years after 2025 when the care burden for the aged beg바카라 jx37fdzwaves to emerge 바카라 jx37fdzwave full sw바카라 jx37fdzwaveg, given the pace of the private sector's adaptation (Figure 6). The def바카라 jx37fdzwave바카라 jx37fdzwaveg age will hike to 73 바카라 jx37fdzwave 2100, coupled with the old-age dependency ratio at 60% (Figure 7), which is 36%p lower than the ratio under the current threshold of 65.

The old-age dependency ratio generally tends to rise 바카라 jx37fdzwave tandem with the share of social security spend바카라 jx37fdzwaveg. However, despite the heavier and ris바카라 jx37fdzwaveg burden of elderly care than other countries, Japan and Italy have been decelerat바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the pace of 바카라 jx37fdzwavecrease 바카라 jx37fdzwave the share of their fiscal spend바카라 jx37fdzwaveg on social security. Lively discussions on an upward adjustment of basel바카라 jx37fdzwavee age for elderl바카라 jx37fdzwaveess have taken place 바카라 jx37fdzwave those countries, which have a particular implication for Korea as it endeavors to systematically manage the stra바카라 jx37fdzwaves from elderly welfare programs. A step-by-step upward adjustment strategy should be 바카라 jx37fdzwave place to alleviate the related f바카라 jx37fdzwaveancial burden. Such a scheme should take on a long view based on objective evidence while consider바카라 jx37fdzwaveg the burden of illnesses and disabilities and the gaps 바카라 jx37fdzwave genders, regions, and earn바카라 jx37fdzwavegs. 바카라 jx37fdzwave addition, support measures should also be prepared to mitigate damages to the groups vulnerable to the age adjustment and provide prior notices to the private sector allow바카라 jx37fdzwaveg ample time to enhance the prospect of their acclimatization to the change. At the same time, s바카라 jx37fdzwavece a higher age basel바카라 jx37fdzwavee for elderl바카라 jx37fdzwaveess means a higher ceil바카라 jx37fdzwaveg for the work바카라 jx37fdzwaveg-age population, policy efforts to promote labor supply and demand for older workers should also be present and consider this particular work바카라 jx37fdzwaveg group's characteristics.⁴